On the eve of the next climate conference (COP 22) to be held from 7 to 18 November in Marrakech, six climatologists are worried about the drift of rising temperatures in a forum co-authored and published by the NGO Universal Ecological Fund (FEU-US). A 7-page text called “the truth about climate change”. The rise in temperatures on our planet is accelerating and “it is necessary to double or triple the efforts” to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, they warn.
While the signatory countries of the Paris Agreement at the 2015 climate conference made a commitment not to exceed a rise in temperatures of more than 2 ° C, or even to do everything to maintain this increase below 1 At 5 ° C, climatologists from the United States of America, Brazil, Argentina and Europe (Italy, Austria, Great Britain) estimate that the average temperature on Earth could rise by two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial era as early as 2050.
The goal of not going beyond this limit has been set to avoid the worst effects of climate change, such as a sharp rise in ocean levels and a greater frequency of extreme weather events. The number of climatic events linked to global warming, such as droughts, forest fires, floods and hurricanes, has already doubled since 1990, experts say. However, in 2015, the average temperature on the globe has already risen 1 ° C above that of the pre-industrial era in the nineteenth century, according to the World Meteorological Organization. In 2012, the increase was only 0.85 ° C.
“The warming is happening now and much faster than expected,” insists Robert Watson, former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and spokesman for the six scientists.
The risk of the United States
Certainly all the signatories of Paris have committed to measures in their countries to limit the rise in temperatures. But even if these commitments are all respected – which is far from being achieved to the extent that there is no constraint – global greenhouse gas emissions will not decline rapidly enough over the next fifteen years years warn scientists. The most ambitious goal of keeping the temperature rise below 1.5 ° C is “almost certainly impossible and could even be reached in the early 2030s,” according to these scientists.
In addition, “political measures will be required in all countries to endorse these commitments and the adoption of regulations and incentives to implement them at the national level,” said Italy’s Carlo Carraro, co-chair of the work III of the Giec. But what experts and climatologists fear the most is a possible disengagement from the United States (the largest emitter of greenhouse gases behind China). Donald Trump, if he had access to the White House does not hide his climate-skeptical positions, and if it’s Hillary Clinton, the possibility that “the two houses of Congress remain controlled by the Republicans, will pose a real problem for the Paris agreement, “said Professor Robert Watson in an interview with AFP. “The political platform of the Republicans wants to defeat the Paris agreement and produce and export more coal,” he was alarmed. “It would encourage other countries to give up their commitments.”
To stay below 2 ° C, global emissions of CO2 will have to be zero by 2060 to 2075, say these scientists, a goal that seems complicated given that 82% of all world energy comes from time to time. oil combustion (31%) of coal (29%) and natural gas (22%).